The Power of Prediction

Jared Spool

May 10th, 2007

Here’s an old trick of ours:

Before the user arrives for a usability test, we gather the design team around and ask them to predict what they think that test participant is going to do.

We share with the team any information we know about the participant, often supplied from our recruiter. We talk about the tasks we’ll ask the participant to perform. Then we ask the team to tell us what they think is going to happen. Where will the participant get stuck? Where will they glide through the design? What do we think will delight them?

By asking these questions up front, we give the team members something to focus on. When a participant gets stuck somewhere they predicted, it stands out. They can take pleasure in knowing they identified a potential landmine.

In our experience, it stands out even more when the participant gets stuck someplace nobody expected. These opportunities allow us a chance to learn something new about how users approach our designs.

Exploring the similarities and differences between the team’s predictions and what happens during the testing can yield important insights for the team, leading to a much improved design.

4 Responses to “The Power of Prediction”

  1. Sarah McFather Says:

    This is an interesting approach.

    I’m an IA and it’s my job to make recommendations about a site and its usability, especially if there is no budget for testing. But there have been times when project team members (and not just the design team!) have doubted my recommendation for a feature needing improvement.

    Not only does this approach promote greater interest in testing, but it can also help to validate future predictions that IAs so often have to defend.

  2. Jared Spool Says:

    Sarah,

    You’re correct. You can use this to help validate future predictive scenarios.

    However, don’t be surprised if, the first few times you try this, you find your ability to predict isn’t a whole lot better than the rest of the team.

    I know that my prediction ability is pretty poor, which is why I keep needing to watch real users do real tasks with the design. And, I’ve been watching users for almost 30 years.

  3. cath Says:

    I like this idea that the team gets together to predict behaviours and outcomes before the testing. It may spark more interest in the actual results and solutions, prompting further discussion across disciplines. (Always a good thing) I have been in the industry as a designer and now full time user experiecne architect, for 17 years and i have learned that although my experience helps, there will usually be something that surprises, or was not anticipated, even if it’s small.

  4. Benjamin Ho Says:

    With this approach, just be certain you’re not “causing” your predictions to come true. The adage of “you manifest what you think about” is actually very powerful. I’d rather stay present in the moment and pay attention to everything - that’s why there are multiple observers - to catch what you missed.

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